European economic policy at the time of Trump was discussed this morning at the Vittoria cinema in Trento, hosted by journalist and Sole 24 Ore writer Riccardo Barlaam, Lilia Cavallari, president of the UPB-Parliamentary Budget Office and lecturer at Roma Tre, Marco Fortis, vice-president of the Edison Foundation and of the Scientific Committee of the Confindustria Studies Centre, Nazzarena Franco, CEO of DHL Express Italy, Marcello Messori, lecturer at the European University Institute and Gylfi Zoega, professor of economics at the University of Iceland.
The first 130 days of the Trump presidency have been characterised by an unpredictability unprecedented for America, and consequently also for the rest of the world, generated by a jumble of executive orders, sometimes contradictory, and even more so by media announcements, which have bombarded public opinion with input. The effects on the economy, finance and companies have been very significant: growing uncertainty in international economies, market instability, falling exports to the US. As always, however, crises trigger opportunities. The American turnaround must push Europe to reinforce its strengths, starting with its social model and its large single market, while at the same time correcting the significant gap it had even before the start of the Trump season on the frontiers of technology and innovation. All this without giving in to the temptation of bilateralism, but continuing to try to operate in a unified manner, as a system. As for Italy, although judgements are varied, it is still the country with the most diversified manufacturing sector in the world and has shown significant growth and employment rates even in the presence of a significant demographic decline and a productivity that is not growing.
The unknown is in the long run. If the population does not grow, nor does productivity, it is difficult to imagine lasting development. Even Italian employment today grows mainly in low productivity sectors, which partly explains the insufficient level of wages and salaries. Investing in high-productivity sectors, however, does not only mean focusing on defence: the transport system and railway networks, for example, can also open up interesting prospects.
Publication date: 24/05/2025
