X-RISK-CC

The Alpine region is among the most vulnerable areas to the effects of climate change, which are occurring here twice as fast as the global average. Retreating glaciers, heat waves, heavy rainfall, storms, landslides and floods are putting increasing pressure on communities, ecosystems and local economies. New prevention and adaptation strategies are therefore required.

The European project X-RISK-CC (Extreme RISKs for Climate Change) aims to strengthen adaptive capacity, resilience and awareness in the face of extreme weather events and the compound and cascading risks associated with them. The project develops data, methods and tools for a systemic understanding of extreme events, analysed through case studies in pilot areas, and provides solutions to policy makers, risk managers and local communities.

X-RISK-CC is co-funded by the Interreg Alpine Space programme and has an international partnership involving regional risk managers, public authorities and research institutions from Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Germany and France.
The Autonomous Province of Trento participates in the project through the Risk Prevention Service and SES, the Mountain Basin Service and APPA - Provincial Agency for Environmental Protection. The Fiemme and Fassa valleys, affected by storm Vaia in 2018, are one of the five pilot areas in which to test innovative risk management practices and future climate scenarios.

The overall objective of the project is to promote adaptation to climate change, with a new eco-systems approach to increase resilience.

In particular, it aims to

• foster transnational collaboration at Alpine level to share knowledge, methods and good practices;
• strengthen the capacity to forecast, prevent and manage natural hazards aggravated by climate change;
• integrate the assessment of compound and cascading risks that may generate complex, long-lasting or irreversible impacts;
• provide tools and information accessible to local communities, technicians, policy-makers and citizens;
• develop shared policy recommendations and operational guidelines within the EUSALP macro-regional strategy, applicable at different levels of governance;
• contribute to the future provincial Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategy coordinated by APPA.

1. Weather extremes under climate change | Scientific analysis of past and future extreme events in the Alpine Space, with innovative techniques (machine learning, climate storylines). Creation of an open access WebGIS platform with useful data and tools for risk management.
2. Compoundimpacts and risks | Assessment of compound and cascading risks and risks to natural, technological and socio-economic systems resulting from extreme events in the five pilot areas. Production of an operational manual transferable to different Alpine contexts.
3. Risk management improvements in pilot areas | Co-design with local actors of targeted actions to improve risk management tools in each pilot area. Elaboration of dossiers and action plans.
4. Transnational guidelines and policy options | Drafting of common guidelines and policy recommendations for the entire Alpine region in cooperation with EUSALP and PLANALP of the Alpine Convention. Production of a digital sourcebook and dissemination via the CAPA portal (Climate Adaptation Platform for the Alps) portal of EUSALP.

The X-RISK-CC project has already achieved significant results at both transnational and local level, with a focus on the pilot area of the Fiemme and Fassa valleys.

Results at Alpine level

• Digital library and interactive WebGIS: an online platform was created to collect data and information on past and future extreme weather events in the Alpine Space. The tool is accessible free of charge and provides explanatory materials, summary sheets and guidelines for the use of data to support impact studies, risk assessments and adaptation planning.
• Extreme events analysis reports: reports for the pilot areas have been completed, with in-depth analyses of significant events (including storm Vaia in Trentino-Alto Adige). The reports include key messages, synoptic situation analyses, characteristics of past events and future projections. They can be read, in English, on the official project website in the Output section.
• Risk Manual - Risk Manual: an operational document in English for local and regional administrations, designed to support professionals in managing complex risks related to extreme weather events and compound and cascading phenomena.
• Report on risk scenarios and compound risks in pilot areas: two documents have been published describing how extreme events can cascade to generate complex impacts, providing methodological tools (questionnaires, checklists, climate storylines) useful for local decision makers.
• Harmonised climate dataset: was published in Zenodo a collection of climate indices calculated for the entire Alpine arc, derived from EURO-CORDEX reanalysis data and projections. They can be viewed in the WebGIS platform.

Results in the Trentino pilot area (Fiemme and Fassa Valleys)

• Analysis of storm Vaia: the consequences of the 2018 storm were analysed in depth, with assessments of the effects produced on forests, land and slope stability.
• Guidelines for avalanche hazard: the project produced recommendations to re-evaluate the avalanche risk areas already considered in the Provincial Urban Plan, integrating parameters such as slope, morphology, presence of crashes and forest regrowth.
• Post-event hydrogeological risk management: tools and procedures were developed to strengthen coordination between competent bodies and improve emergency management.
• Training and awareness-raising: activities aimed at technicians, operators and citizens were initiated to increase awareness and preparedness for climate change-related risks.

These results constitute a concrete basis for improving climate risk management in Trentino and the Alpine Space, and feed into the drafting of the future provincial Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategy coordinated by APPA.